Over-pressure: how does the average reloader really know?

Once again, I read something that kickstarted my brain: particularly the "Am I doing something wrong" cortex in my "What if...?" lobe.

I have a .44Mag. It is on the short side at 4".

First of all, I have worked on the assumption that faster is probably better for a given bullet size, although I am beginning to realise that this may not always be the case.
All the same, if I want to get decent velocities out of it, I have to start pushing toward max-ish loads.

I have ordered some heavier .430 cal, 275gr bullets (which I hope to launch at anything from 1100-1200fps). I want to put them into a beefy round; dangerous to my target, but not to my gun.
This goal's difficulty is exacerbated by the fact that none of my reloading data feature the powders I use with the bullets I can get.

Initially I referred to materials telling me about this sign and that which would warn of over-pressure (rifle cartridges), and then I found that for revolvers (straight-walled cases) it is really only smooth extraction, loose primer-pockets and possibly non-incremental velocity jumps.

I then read this article (which made me want to rush out and buy a .454 SRH and load it with 45 Colt!!) linked in another thread and there I find examples that show even the primer and extraction signs are in fact fairly useless because sometimes they do not warn you of danger until well into very high pressures. That's like a seat-belt that only works if it is run over by a tank, but not if you drive into a wall!
In other words, you could have a load showing no sign of over pressure, yet with PSI at well over the SAAMI max for that round/gun!!

So what's left? Sudden jumps in velocity?

What can I reliably use to tell me, "Yes, this round is still OK. However, this one is on the excessive side and I need to back it off by .2gr..."
Sudden jumps in velocity?

At the moment it seems like a lot of it is conjuncture, gut-feeling and experience.
Well, mistakes are the mother of experience and I prefer to avoid mistakes.

Really.
What is left if you don't have pressure-reading manifold/apparatus in your basement??

__________________
You cannot wake someone who is pretending to sleep. Stop pretending. Wake up. Doubt: ...it's the only thing I'm sure of...-Marsupials: Nature's idea of Concealed-Carry-

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